Roseau, Dominica: Dominica has been positioned below a Tropical Storm Warning as TS Tammy approaches the Leeward Islands. TS Tammy is predicted to supply storm complete rainfall quantities of 3-6 inches, with most quantities of 10 inches, throughout parts of the northern Windward into the Leeward Islands.
These rains could produce flash and concrete flooding and remoted mudslides within the larger terrain.
DOWASCO urges the general public to be ready. Guarantee that you’ve sufficient water saved for emergency use as flash flooding poses a menace to our water methods and will end in momentary interruption of service. A few of our methods can even be shut down to guard the water provide.
Retailer a minimum of one gallon of water per particular person in your family or extra if there are kids or aged individuals in your loved ones. Retailer water in secure, food-grade containers that may be lined securely.
The colleges in Dominica have been closed on account of hostile climate. PM Roosevelt Skerrit introduced the closure of the colleges on October 20, 2023. Nonetheless, the day will stay working day within the nation.
Climate in Caribbean
Abstract of fashions and why a monitor barely extra west/south that places extra islands in direct affect continues to be very affordable. Additionally Puerto Rico and Virgin Islands could should cope with Tammy extra straight and for longer if it does come extra west.
The recon plane is discovering the middle barely south of 13.5N and Tammy is staying west. This location is south and west of the place the fashions and lots of of their ensembles had it in final night time’s forecasts.
These mannequin outcomes had been used to make the latest monitor forecasts so the brand new mannequin runs this morning can have the brand new knowledge and certain will shift a bit extra west nearer to these ensemble tracks which had been extra south and west.
The hurricane fashions like HAFS-A & HAFS-B, UKMET present this extra south and west monitor then decelerate north of Puerto Rico.
The GFS and Euro(ECENS) are totally different and lots of of their tracks take Tammy extra east and north a lot sooner. However a good variety of their tracks take the south and west monitor and decelerate north of Puerto Rico.
These extra southerly tracks are nearer to the present location of Tammy east of Barbados(in different phrases their forecast from final night time is nearer to actuality).
Canadian mannequin ensemble tracks are extra straight into the islands and decelerate NW to N of Puerto Rico
COAMPS hurricane mannequin tracks are extra straight into the islands. Ready to see if the brand new 11am does replicate any of the brand new mannequin knowledge or if the afternoon updates will replicate this. These small modifications west may imply extra impacts to islands like St. Lucia in central to north Windwards.
Observe nudged barely east. NHC says fashions got here in barely extra east. Tammy has continued on a WNW 290 diploma movement at slower 10mph. This triggered the forecast to be slower, maintaining Tammy affecting the islands longer. Rainfall totals had been elevated as effectively.
The low degree and mid-level circulation is healthier aligned tonight because it slowed right down to 10mph. This can give it an opportunity to strengthen. Already deep thunderstorms have popped up over the middle final hour or so. That is seen on Barbados radar. To the south are giant areas of average to sturdy thunderstorms.
There are some strong rainbands in there with numerous lightning within the ones east of Trinidad and Tobago. Some gentle to average rainbands are round Saint Lucia, St Vincent and close to Barbados. The wind shear is much less tonight and extra convection is beginning to step by step type within the beforehand drier western aspect of Tammy. This must be watched.
NHC thus raised its depth forecast a bit making Tammy a stable class 1 because it passes close to or over the Leewards. It’s anticipated to be close to 65-70mph because it nears Dominica and Guadeloupe.
