KINGSTON, Jamaica, CMC—Regardless of current financial challenges, Jamaica isn’t in a recession, says the Director Basic of the Planning Institute of Jamaica (PIOJ), Dr. Wayne Henry.
Talking at a PIOJ Quarterly press briefing on Thursday, Henry addressed considerations concerning the island’s financial efficiency, citing a complete evaluation of key indicators.
“Whereas we acknowledge the downturn in financial output, our evaluation based mostly on the newest information and data obtainable is that the Jamaican economic system isn’t in a recession,” he emphasised.
The dedication follows a scrutiny interval prompted by information from the Statistical Institute of Jamaica (STATIN) exhibiting a decline in seasonally adjusted actual worth added at fixed costs for the April to June and July to September 2024 quarters.
Henry clarified that whereas this information initially steered the economic system met one technical criterion for a recession, a extra holistic view offers a special image.
“The usage of gross home product (GDP) alone to find out a recession has its shortfalls,” he defined.
“It’s usually higher to think about a wider set of measures of financial exercise to find out whether or not a rustic is experiencing a recession. Particularly, financial indicators, similar to earnings, employment, and monetary well being, ought to be thought of to mirror a extra complete view,” he added.
One of the vital compelling components supporting the PIOJ’s evaluation is the energy of Jamaica’s labor market.
“The unemployment charge for October 2024 is 3.5 p.c, and employers have lamented challenges and shortages in filling some vacant positions.”
“This means that regardless of the non permanent contraction in output, the labor market continues to stay strong and could also be thought of a lead indicator of a return to development within the brief time period,” he added.
Henry acknowledged the affect of current hydrological occasions, together with Hurricane Beryl and Tropical Storm Raphael, which considerably affected key sectors similar to tourism, electrical energy and water provide, agriculture, forestry, and fishing.
Regardless of these challenges, Henry expressed optimism concerning the close to future.
“Primarily based on the newest information and data obtainable, the PIOJ is projecting that the economic system will return to constructive output efficiency, that’s, development, within the January to March 2025 quarter,” he mentioned.
“We are going to proceed to watch and monitor financial developments, and we’ll replace our evaluation as new information turns into obtainable,” Dr. Henry mentioned.
