The Barbados-based Caribbean Local weather Outlook Discussion board (CariCOF) has issued its newest forecast for the upcoming months, highlighting important local weather patterns and potential hazards for the area.
In response to the forecast, the Pacific’s El Niño occasion is anticipated to weaken, whereas near-record heat temperatures are anticipated within the Tropical North Atlantic from March to Could.
Transitioning into a hotter season
El Niño, characterised by the irregular warming of floor waters within the japanese tropical Pacific Ocean, performs a pivotal function in shaping international climate patterns.
Because the area strikes into the hotter part of this phenomenon, the Caribbean is poised to expertise above-average temperatures and recurrent heatwaves as early as April.
Shifting climate patterns
CariCOF’s Caribbean Local weather Outlooks publication signifies that March might witness excessive evaporation charges and a peak within the frequency of brief dry spells.
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This might exacerbate ongoing drought circumstances and improve the danger of wildfires, significantly within the far northwest and southeast areas. Nevertheless, from April to Could, a notable shift is anticipated, with rainfall depth and frequency projected to rise sharply.
This surge in precipitation heightens the potential for flooding, flash floods, and related hazards throughout most areas, excluding the ABC Islands (Aruba, Bonaire, and Curacao).
Drought considerations
As of February 1, 2024, a number of Caribbean territories have already skilled long-term drought circumstances. These embody Antigua, Dominica, French Guiana, Guadeloupe, Martinique, St. Kitts, Suriname, northern Belize, Japanese Cuba, northern Guyana, Haiti, Trinidad & Tobago, and the Windward Islands.
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Wanting forward, CariCOF warns that by the top of Could 2024, extra areas might face evolving or persistent drought, together with southwest Belize, Grand Cayman, inland parts of French Guiana, northeastern and inland parts of Guyana, southwest Puerto Rico, and northern Suriname.
There may be additionally a chance of drought improvement or continuation in different areas equivalent to Central Cuba, Dominica, coastal French Guiana, northern Guyana, and Tobago.
