ROSEAU, Dominica, CMC – Caribbean climate forecasters started a two-day assembly right here on Wednesday amid the warning that whereas the area is beginning to really feel some reprieve from the scorching climate over the previous couple of months, the warmth will probably be again throughout the subsequent three months.
Climatologist on the Barbados-based Caribbean Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology (CIMH), Dr. Cédric Van Meerbeeck, famous that the Caribbean is accustomed to warmth however warned on the 2023-24 Dry Season Caribbean Local weather Outlook Discussion board (CariCOF) that the upper temperatures are negatively impacting residents of the area.
“Cyclones and warmth are hazards we really feel, have felt, or find out about. Now, warmth, we additionally perceive, is not only a traditional factor within the Caribbean. It negatively impacts us,” he advised delegates.
“So it’s time to cease considering that the one factor about our local weather that impacts us is rain, flooding, and hurricanes,” he mentioned, including, “We all know that there are different issues which might be looming and which have began affecting us.
“Now, who cares about Sargassum? Who has to take care of Sargassum, proper?” he highlighted the purpose, calling consideration to the seaweed that may be a important downside on some Caribbean seashores, affecting tourism, fisheries, and recreation.
“There’s additionally seasonality of Sargassum bleaching within the Caribbean, however that solely began in 2011; there are different hazards that we additionally want to have a look at.”
Van Meerbeeck mentioned that to sum up climatological circumstances within the area over the previous couple of months, he would say, “Not too long ago, it was scorching.
“I don’t suppose anyone is doubting that anymore,” he mentioned, noting the accuracy of the forecast issued on the moist season CariCOF in Might, which coincides with the hurricane season.
In Might, CIMH predicted 17 named storms, seven of which have been prone to develop into hurricanes, 4 of which have been important storms this 12 months.
Nonetheless, Van Meerbeeck mentioned then that the “boxing recreation” between the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans and Saharan mud over the Atlantic would decide the extent of tropical cyclone exercise.
On Wednesday, he mentioned there have been extra tropical cyclones this season than ordinary.
“However we have been lucky sufficient this 12 months that almost all of them prevented the islands. We all know that’s solely typically the case.
“However you additionally know that it takes only one,” he mentioned, talking in a rustic the place 5 years earlier, Hurricane Maria destroyed 90 % of the housing inventory and left loss and harm amounting to 226 % of the island’s gross home product (GDP).
“We’re formally out of the hurricane season this month. However that doesn’t imply that there can’t be any impacting hurricane or tropical cyclone,” Van Meerbeeck mentioned, including that if Caribbean individuals didn’t take into consideration the warmth till final 12 months, they definitely did so this 12 months.
The climatologist famous that rainfall decreases because the dry season progresses however added that no warmth waves are anticipated over the following three months.
“However lo and behold, if you happen to take a look at the second a part of the dry season, warmth will return. It’s going to return. Once more, it would return,” Van Meerbeeck mentioned.
He emphasised that the warmth is not going to return merely as a result of the area wouldn’t be but into the moist or hurricane season, including that for some Caribbean international locations, resembling Belize, the driest a part of the 12 months can be the most well liked.
Van Meerbeeck mentioned that in some elements of the area, there can be much less water than is normally the case for that point of 12 months, together with in some elements of the Guianas, Grenada, and Trinidad and Tobago, that are anticipated to see drier-than-usual soils.
“There are locations the place we’re seeing some concern rising, and that’s Belize, Cuba, and Puerto Rico,” he mentioned, referring to emphasize on water assets.
Van Meerbeeck mentioned flooding has a excessive potential to happen, significantly within the Guinas -Suriname and French Guiana – as a result of, versus the Caribbean islands and Belize, the Guianas are coming into their secondary moist season.
He mentioned that whereas the Caribbean is aware of that the dry season is normally like, this 12 months, the Atlantic Ocean was significantly scorching, “and we felt the impacts of that as a result of warmth stress being an element of each greater temperatures, but additionally extra moisture, which comes from the ocean.”
Van Meerbeeck likened the state of affairs to sweating as a human cooling mechanism, noting that whereas the Atlantic Ocean is cooling, it would stay hotter than ordinary.
“I repeat, is gonna stay hotter than ordinary,” Van Meerbeeck mentioned, including {that a} heat Atlantic Ocean means hotter temperatures within the air and extra humidity.
“So in the direction of the tip of the dry season, the heating season is gonna say, ‘Hiya, I’m again.’”
Then again, he mentioned that the Pacific Ocean is suggesting the primary robust El Nino since 2014-2016.
“Now I do know my buddy from Antigua can let you know that water availability in Antigua and Barbuda was a fairly large downside in these years,” he mentioned, returning to the “boxing match” analogy he used within the Might CariCof.
“There are some methods during which the Atlantic Ocean temperatures and the Pacific Ocean are having a boxing recreation. And sure, each are the highest fighters on earth.
“However it is advisable know prior who wins. So what we’ve skilled prior to now few months is that the Atlantic dominated. Each of them convey extra warmth to the Caribbean. However it was not significantly dry as a result of we have now plenty of moisture in our environment because of the evaporation from the nice and cozy Atlantic Ocean.
“What it appears to be like like for the following few months is the boxing recreation was virtually one was virtually knocked out for El Niño with El Niño is preventing again.”
The climatologist mentioned the hazard the area must look out for in the course of the dry season is drought, including that the forecast is for extra rain than ordinary in the course of the second three months of the dry season.
Van Meerbeeck mentioned this might result in flooding in some locations, relying on the depth of the rainfall.
“Now, sadly, right here we solely have a forecast map for the following three months, not for the three months after that,” he mentioned, urging the area to concentrate to the data from their native meteorological companies.
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