BRIDGETOWN, Barbados, CMC -The Barbados-based Caribbean Local weather Outlook Discussion board (CariCOF) Monday mentioned that El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) impartial situations might end in an intense first half of the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season, with a possible variety of named storm between three and 10 on this interval.
The six-month Hurricane Season started on June 1.
ENSO is a recurring local weather sample that considerably impacts international climate, primarily by modifications in sea floor temperatures within the central and jap tropical Pacific Ocean. The warming section is named El Niño, and the cooling section as La Niña. ENSO influences rainfall, temperature, and wind patterns worldwide.
In its newest version of Caribbean Local weather Outlooks, CariCOF mentioned that the ENSO impartial situations within the Pacific, mixed with unusually heat waters across the Caribbean and briefly calmer waters within the jap Tropical North Atlantic, might additionally indicate a Caribbean Warmth Season with the opportunity of heatwaves, step by step ramping up, however unlikely to match 2023 and 2024.
It said that rainfall depth and bathe frequency ought to improve, leading to a excessive to extraordinarily excessive potential for flooding, flash floods, cascading hazards, and related impacts.
“Forecasts of Saharan mud intrusions solely present helpful talent as much as one or two weeks forward,” CariCOF mentioned, noting, “traditionally, such episodes are typically frequent by August and have a tendency to provide spells of scorching and humid situations with diminished air high quality, all of the whereas stifling intense bathe and tropical cyclone exercise.”
CariCOF mentioned that rainfall totals from June to August are forecast to be the ”traditional or larger” in Cuba, Guyana, Hispaniola, and the US Caribbean territories however the traditional or much less in Aruba, Bonaire and Curacao, the Bahamas, Barbados, Belize, the Cayman Islands, Trinidad and Tobago and the Windward Islands (Dominica, Grenada, St. Lucia and St. Vincent and the Grenadines).
CariCOF said that as of Might 1, extreme or worse short-term drought has developed within the Northwestern Bahamas, with reasonable drought in southwest Belize, the northern Dominican Republic, southwest Jamaica, St. Barts, the north coast of Suriname, and northwest Trinidad.
It said {that a} long-term drought would possibly develop within the Northern Bahamas by the top of November 2025.
