PORT OF SPAIN, Trinidad, CMC -The Central Financial institution of Trinidad and Tobago (CBTT) says Indicators counsel a contraction in power manufacturing within the second quarter of 2024, alongside buoyant nonenergy output.
In its November Financial Coverage Report, the CBTT mentioned power sector output incurred important declines as a result of shortfalls in upstream manufacturing. In the meantime, exercise within the nonenergy sector remained resilient, and inflation was contained.
It mentioned whereas financial exercise improved within the first quarter of 2024, there have been ongoing manufacturing challenges within the power sector.
Knowledge from the Central Statistics Workplace (CSO) signifies that the gross home product (GDP) at fixed costs (actual GDP) improved by 1.5 % within the first quarter of 2024.
Development was premised on the continued energy of the nonenergy sector, 1.8 %, which was 1.8 %, and additional supported by a marginal enlargement within the power sector, 0.9 % %.
NonenergyUpticks inufacturing, excluding refining and petrochemicals, monetary and insurance coverage actions, and transport and storage sectors.
, propelled nonenergy sector output. The CBBT mentioned that progress within the power sector emanated from enhancements within the manufacture of petrochemicals, condensate extraction, and petroleum and pure fuel distribution sectors. It added that these have been partially offset by declines within the crude oil exploration and extraction, pure fuel exploration and extraction, asphalt, and refining sectors.
The Central Financial institution estimates counsel that the power sector contracted within the second quarter of 2024. Nevertheless, nonenergy sector exercise remained robust over the interval, registering 1.7 %, although it was inadequate to counter the declines within the power sector, which was 7.9 %.
The CBTT mentioned that waning power sector output was premised on shortfalls in upstream manufacturing.
Knowledge from the Ministry of Vitality and Vitality Industries (MEEI) pointed to decreased output of crude oil (-11.4 %) and pure fuel (-9.8 %) within the second quarter of 2024. This primarily mirrored the deliberate upkeep applications carried out by bpTT at a number of manufacturing amenities
This prompted a falloff in mining and quarrying sector exercise (-8.2 %). The CBB mentioned these upstream declines filtered by way of to the refining and petrochemicals sectors.
“Within the case of the previous, decreased manufacturing of liquefied pure fuel (LNG) (-16.7 %) outweighed a large uptick in pure fuel liquids (NGL) manufacturing (41.6 %). The numerous enhance in NGL manufacturing was as a result of a base impact, as Pheonix Park Gasoline Processors Restricted took its processing models offline in April 2023 for routine upkeep works. “
In the meantime, petrochemical manufacturing was marred by declines in ammonia (-9.8 %) and methanol (-6.8 %) output. Over the interval, urea manufacturing improved marginally (1.0 %).
The CBBT mentioned preliminary information for power sector output from July to August 2024 counsel a partial enchancment from the second quarter’s efficiency.
Based on information from MEEI, crude oil manufacturing declined by 3.1 %, whereas pure fuel output elevated by 2.8 % over the interval. The manufacturing of liquefied pure fuel (LNG) fell by 2.5 %, whereas pure fuel liquids (NGL) grew by 12.8 %. Within the downstream sector, improved output was noticed for ammonia (18.7 %) and methanol (3.0 %), whereas the manufacturing of urea declined by 72.9 %.
The CBBT mentioned that indicators counsel that the nonenergy sector remained resilient within the second quarter of 2024.
“This sentiment was supported by a rise of 10.1 % (year-on-year) within the Cashless Funds Index in June 2024, a supplementary indicator of exercise within the nonenergy sector. On a sectoral foundation, elevated exercise was estimated within the Wholesale and Retail Commerce (excluding Vitality) sector (2.7 %), reflecting an enchancment within the Retail Gross sales Index.
“This mirrored enhancements in most sub-indices, particularly Dry Good Shops (3.6 %) and Supermarkets and Groceries (1.3 %). Enhancements within the Index have been offset by decreased gross sales within the Family Home equipment, Furnishings, and Different Furnishings (-1.1 %) and Textiles and Carrying Attire (-0.3 %) sub-indices.
“The buoyancy of this sector was additional supported by upticks in supplementary indicators, depicted by a rise within the quantity of level of sale (18.0 %) and web service provider (14.8 %) transactions.”
The CBTT estimated elevated exercise (6.5 %) within the transportation and storage sector as a result of better land and air journey. It mentioned an uptick within the native gross sales of cement suggests improved exercise within the building sector (3.7 %).
Over the interval, enhancements have been additionally famous within the variety of constructing permits issued and refused (26.2 %), hinting at heightened construction-related exercise within the close to time period. Enhancements have been additionally estimated within the manufacturing sector, excluding the refining and petrochemicals sector (0.2 %).
Conversely, declines have been estimated in a number of sectors within the second quarter of 2024. Notable amongst these was the electrical energy and water sector, excluding (-0.7 %), whereby improved energy technology was offset by decreased water provide.
Additional, indicators level to curtailed exercise within the monetary and insurance coverage actions sector (-1.3 %). The CBTT famous a falloff in gross premiums within the insurance coverage trade, a discount within the quantity of shares traded on the inventory trade, and a decline in deposits and investments of belief establishments.
The Central Financial institution mentioned labor market situations tightened considerably within the second quarter of 2024, leading to an unemployment price of 4.8 % in comparison with 3.7 % recorded in the identical quarter of 2023.
It mentioned the upper unemployment price mirrored a year-on-year decline within the variety of employed individuals (26.7 thousand) and a rise within the variety of unemployed individuals (5.9 thousand).
“Concurrently, the labor pressure contracted by 20.8 thousand individuals, leading to a labor pressure participation price of 54.5 %, down from 56.2 % within the corresponding quarter one yr earlier. Nationwide insurance coverage scheme (NIS) funds additionally declined by 5.6 % (year-on-year) within the second quarter of 2024, suggesting usually weaker employment through the interval.”
In the meantime, preliminary information present that the variety of job ads printed within the print media (608) elevated by 16.3 % (year-on-year) through the third quarter of 2024.
The CBTT mentioned whole imports rose by US$107.7 million to US$1,774.3 million within the second quarter of 2024.
Over the three months to June 2024, gasoline imports elevated by 36.5 % (year-on-year), or US$111.0 million, to succeed in US$414.9 million.
“This motion was primarily pushed by a rise in import volumes of refined merchandise for export to regional markets, which greater than doubled (152.4 %) over the reference interval. Concurrently, non-fuel imports recorded a marginal decline, falling by 0.2 % or US$ 3.3 million to US$1,359.4 million.”
The CBTT mentioned whole exports posted a marginal decline within the second quarter of 2024.
It mentioned exports registered US$2,334.6 million within the second quarter of 2024 in comparison with US$2,494.2 million in 2023.
“The decrease outturn in whole exports was pushed primarily by a discount in power exports. Particularly, power exports fell 7.4 % (year-on-year) to US$ 1,867.7 million within the second quarter of 2024.
“Declines have been famous for many subcategories of power exports, together with fuel (-34.9 %) and petrochemicals (-2.2 %). Softer worldwide commodity costs and decrease export volumes for some merchandise through the interval have been chargeable for the weaker efficiency.
