By Rock Hermon Hackshaw
On this column, I’m going to make some predictions relative to the 2024 US presidential elections. They don’t replicate the views of this newspaper’s publishers/editors. Nonetheless, earlier than making my predictions, let me take you on a brief private experience by an instructional part of New York Metropolis. It pertains to this column.
In January of 1980, I entered Columbia College as a freshman in search of to pursue a bachelor’s diploma in political science. My first core-course was “Introduction to US Authorities”. It was mandated for practically all majors. Even after forty-four years, my African American professor (Mr. Wealthy) nonetheless involves thoughts; particularly because the upcoming presidential elections method us.
On the primary day of sophistication, Professor Wealthy made a number of statements that I can nonetheless keep in mind; provided that I initially disagreed with a few them. As a precocious upstart, I raised my hand. He acknowledged me and we proceeded to have a dialogue. The primary assertion I took umbrage with was that “most People vote their pocketbook”. Which means that the state of the up to date economic system, dictates whether or not a president (and his political occasion) could also be re-elected or not. The second was that “there was no such factor as a feminine bloc vote”; since girls vote the way in which that the numerous male of their lives vote: whether or not it’s father, grandfather, husband, lover, male-relative, or male-friend.
My arguments have been heartfelt. I actually believed that there have been philosophical underpinnings to the American voter and their causes for making voting-choices. I used to be fallacious. The professor verbally offered me with fairly a number of examples for the place he took, whereas suggesting a number of books for my studying and enlightenment on the topic.
I additionally argued that ladies within the USA have been rather more impartial of their voting patterns, since they got the precise to vote in 1922, by the nineteenth modification to the united statesA. structure. Moreover, after World Wars one and two – when many ladies left housekeeping (out of necessity) to work in factories, places of work and such – this newly discovered independence was additional cemented. I additionally proffered that profound influences such because the “girls’s liberation motion” of the sixties and seventies -when many females symbolically burnt their brassieres as a protest in opposition to male chauvinism demonstrated this newly discovered autonomy. I said that each one these and some different components when mixed transcended girls’s socio-economic dependence on males, thus their previous voting patterns should have modified.
He revered my arguments however adamantly refused to budge. For me, he carved out two “potential” exceptions: lesbians of all races, and presumably black girls. He insisted that ladies (particularly white females) vote alongside the identical strains as the numerous male of their life. He then urged some extra studying supplies for my edification on this explicit challenge.
Because the years glided by, the professor and I each moved on to greater issues. He was given tenure at Wayne College in Detroit, Michigan; and I went on to graduate-school and obtained a grasp’s diploma in public communication. I later did post-graduate research in each “schooling” and “economics”. I at all times figured that at some point I’ll disprove the professor’s concept on Caucasian-female voters. This 12 months, I believe I lastly will.
Kamala Harris goes to win the US presidency primarily as a result of girls are going to vote as a bloc, and doubtless by as a lot as ten proportion factors larger than males. They’re going to put her excessive. Ms. Harris goes to garner essentially the most votes of any presidential candidate in US historical past. I additionally predict that the Democrats will regain management of the Home of Representatives.
I can provide you a dozen good explanation why I really feel this manner, however for now I’ll simply checklist a number of. The principle purpose being the “abortion” challenge. For the reason that Supreme Courtroom overturned Roe v. Wade, and returned it to state legislatures, a overwhelming majority of ladies are pissed. It’s a query of ladies’s healthcare; particularly round gynecological points. There are states the place girls can not get an abortion even in instances of rape, incest, or if the lifetime of the mom is threatened. In some states, medical doctors can lose their licenses and/or go to jail for administering sure kinds of healthcare to a pregnant lady in misery. Many ladies see that is as an existential challenge. They imagine it’s a life-or-death challenge. Republican girls are going to cross political-party strains to vote for Harris. Her coattails will carry the Democrats to victory within the race for house-control.
Each Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden defeated Donald Trump within the common vote throughout their elections, and so they didn’t have the “abortion” challenge to run on. Seven instances now, the problem has been put to voters by referendum, and even in crimson states the pro-choice place has prevailed. Within the upcoming elections the problem is on the poll in eight states: I imagine that democrats will see an upward bump of their numbers. With two weeks to go, early voting stats appear to recommend this.
For the reason that 2016 and 2020 elections Donald Trump has been discovered accountable for sexual misconduct in two civil-court selections. One choose even referred to as his actions “rape”. Extra females have come ahead with claims of his sexual-misbehaviors, and he was convicted of enterprise fraud on 34 counts – plainly he doctored the enterprise data to cover the truth that he paid hush cash to a porn star to cowl up a sexual rendezvous, whereas being married. It was additionally deemed election interference. Past all this, he faces a number of indictments in varied jurisdictions and is an unindicted co-conspirator in different legal issues. His total imply demeanor doesn’t ingratiate him with girls. He’s going to lose the feminine vote by a large margin.
I may checklist extra explanation why I believe Ms. Harris will win, however brevity precludes a prolonged column proper now.
I simply may debunk Professor Wealthy on this election.
Keep tuned-in of us.
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