BRIDGETOWN, Barbados, CMC -The Barbados-based Caribbean Local weather Outlook Discussion board (CariCOF) says 2024 is shaping to be a 12 months of local weather extremes within the Caribbean.
In its newest Caribbean Local weather Outlook E-newsletter, launched Tuesday and summarising the local weather circumstances and associated hazards for April to June, CariCOF says a waning El Niño occasion within the Pacific and record-warm Tropical North Atlantic temperatures are forecast.
El Niño refers to warming the ocean floor, or above-average sea floor temperatures, within the central and japanese tropical Pacific Ocean.
“Subsequently, the area is about to enter an intense Warmth Season with recurrent heatwaves and an early begin to an intense moist season,” CariCOf mentioned.
It mentioned bathe depth and frequency are more likely to rise sharply, leading to a excessive potential for flooding, flash floods, cascading hazards, and related impacts in most locations, besides Aruba, Bonnaire, and Curacao (ABC Islands).
“Unknown is how frequent dry, dust-laden Saharan air incursions into the Caribbean can be.
If very frequent, the interval will additional be characterised by erratic bathe exercise, interspersed with frequent dry spells, and additional buildup of ongoing drought, record-breaking warmth, and wildfire potential,” CariCOF added.
“The potential for flooding, flash floods, and cascading impacts arising from runoff throughout intense rainfall occasions can be excessive, significantly in mountainous areas and the Guianas.”
CariCOF mentioned that as of March 1 this 12 months, reasonable (or worse) short-term drought has developed in French Guiana, Grenada, Guyana, Martinique, southwest Puerto Rico, Suriname, and Tobago.
It mentioned long-term drought has developed in southern Belize, northern Cuba, Dominica, Grenada, south Puerto Rico, St. Vincent, japanese and north Suriname, Trinidad and Tobago.
CariCOF mentioned that on the finish of Could, long-term drought, which is of speedy concern in southern French Guiana, is evolving in southwest Belize, Grand Cayman, elements of Central Cuba, central and northern French Guiana, northern Guyana, southwest Puerto Rico, Suriname, and would possibly develop or proceed in ABC islands, north Belize, Central Cuba, Dominica, Jamaica, Trinidad and Tobago.
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