The Barbados-based Caribbean Local weather Outlook Discussion board (CariCOF) on Monday stated that over the subsequent three months extra comfy temperatures and humidity will probably be skilled throughout the area.
“This era additionally marks the construct up in direction of the height of the dry season within the Caribbean area, which can be even drier than standard for many,” CariCOF stated in its newest Caribbean Local weather Outlooks bulletin.
It stated that that is forecast to be related to a rise in short- and long-term drought concern, particularly in Belize, the Guianas and Puerto Rico, the frequency of quick dry spells and wildfire potential in direction of March.
“Nonetheless, the possibility of intense showers in central and southern components of Belize, the Guianas and in mountainous areas of the Caribbean islands, retains the potential for flooding, flash floods and cascading hazards average to excessive there by January,” CariCOF added.
It stated Belize, will expertise principally heavy rainfall in the course of the dry season, and that rainfall totals from January to March are more likely to be the standard or much less throughout the Caribbean Islands and the Guianas.
As of December 1 final 12 months, average or worse short-term drought has developed in Barbados, southeasternmost Cuba, Grenada, most components of the Guianas, Martinique, southern Puerto Rico, St Barts, St Martin, St Vincent, Trinidad & Tobago, whereas long-term drought has developed in southern Barbados, components of northern Belize, japanese Cuba, southeast French Guiana, Grenada, Martinique, southern Puerto Rico, St Croix, St Vincent, Trinidad and Tobago.
It stated on the finish of March this 12 months, short-term drought is evolving in southwest Belize, Grand Cayman, inside French Guiana, southwest Puerto Rico, and northeast Suriname, and will presumably develop or proceed in a number of different areas.
CariCOF stated that in the course of the interval April to June this 12 months, temperatures are forecast to be larger than standard in most areas.
“Often, no important episodes of warmth stress are anticipated in the course of the Caribbean Cool Season. Nonetheless, given persistently larger than standard temperatures, heatwaves would possibly nicely be recorded this March, notably with very low soil moisture content material.
“This era marks the transition from the dry to the moist season, in addition to the transition into the Warmth Season within the Caribbean,” CariCOF stated, including “the tropical North Atlantic Ocean is forecast to stay unseasonably heat, whereas the sturdy El Niño is anticipated to fade”.
It stated unusually excessive air temperatures will probably prevail in lots of areas by June 2024 and the incidence of great warmth stress is anticipated to evolve.
“The chance of extreme climate impacts, together with flooding, flash floods, and cascading hazards might sharply rise in April or Could, as the possibility of an intense early moist season is larger than in most years. Traditionally, an inexpensive analogue to this 12 months’s anticipated circumstances is 2010, when regional drought was adopted by excessive warmth, rainfall and floods,” CariCOF stated.
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