The Barbados-based Caribbean Local weather Outlook Discussion board (CariCOF) has issued a forecast suggesting that the Caribbean area will expertise extra comfy temperatures and decrease humidity over the subsequent three months.
This era additionally marks the build-up towards the height of the dry season within the Caribbean area. Nonetheless, CariCOF warns that this dry season could also be even drier than common for many Caribbean nations, bringing with it a rise in short- and long-term drought considerations.
Drought considerations highlighted in particular areas
CariCOF’s newest Caribbean Local weather Outlook bulletin highlights particular areas in danger for drought-related points. Belize, the Guianas, and Puerto Rico are anticipated to face the best ranges of concern.
The forecast predicts a rise briefly dry spells and the next potential for wildfires, significantly in direction of March. Regardless of this, there’s nonetheless an opportunity of intense showers in central and southern elements of Belize, the Guianas, and mountainous areas of the Caribbean islands.
This retains the potential for flooding, flash floods, and cascading hazards reasonable to excessive by way of January.
Combined rainfall predictions throughout the Caribbean
CariCOF anticipates that Belize will expertise largely heavy rainfall throughout the dry season. Nonetheless, for many Caribbean Islands and the Guianas, rainfall totals from January to March are prone to be both typical or lower than common.
As of December 1 final yr, reasonable or worse short-term drought situations had developed in a number of areas, together with Barbados, southeasternmost Cuba, Grenada, most elements of the Guianas, Martinique, southern Puerto Rico, and others.
Lengthy-term drought had developed in extra areas, corresponding to southern Barbados, elements of northern Belize, japanese Cuba, and extra.
Increasing drought considerations
CariCOF warns that as of the tip of March this yr, short-term drought is evolving in areas like southwest Belize, Grand Cayman, inside French Guiana, southwest Puerto Rico, and northeast Suriname, with the potential for growing or persevering with in different areas.
This raises considerations about water shortage and its potential impacts on agriculture and livelihoods.
Uncommon temperature patterns forward
Looking forward to April by way of June, CariCOF forecasts higher-than-usual temperatures in most areas.
Whereas the Caribbean Cool Season usually doesn’t expertise vital episodes of warmth stress, persistently increased temperatures might result in heatwaves in March, particularly in areas with very low soil moisture content material.
This era marks the transition from the dry to the moist season and the onset of the Warmth Season within the Caribbean.
Components influencing climate patterns
CariCOF notes that the tropical North Atlantic Ocean is predicted to stay unseasonably heat throughout this era, whereas the sturdy El Niño is predicted to fade.
This mix is prone to end in unusually excessive air temperatures in lots of areas by way of June 2024, rising the danger of serious warmth stress.
Elevated danger of extreme climate
The forecast additionally means that the danger of extreme climate impacts, together with flooding, flash floods, and cascading hazards, might sharply rise in April or Might. The possibility of an intense early moist season is increased than in most years.
Drawing a historic parallel, CariCOF cites 2010 as an affordable analog for this yr’s anticipated situations, when a regional drought was adopted by excessive warmth, rainfall, and floods.
