Because the Caribbean enters its cool season, the Barbados-based Caribbean Local weather Outlook (CariCOF) offers insights into what the following three months have in retailer for the area.
From December to February, Caribbean islands and Belize will expertise extra snug temperatures and decrease humidity ranges. Nonetheless, this era additionally marks the early dry season for these areas, with potential implications for drought circumstances.
A shift in climate patterns
CariCOF factors out that the cool season will convey with it a discount in moist days and fewer spells of heavy showers, particularly by February.
It stated there’s a concern for reasonable drought in areas which can be at present experiencing rainfall deficits. Northwest Belize, particularly, is anticipated to see extra frequent dry spells.
Flood dangers and dry circumstances
Though the potential for flooding and cascading hazards is anticipated to be reasonable by means of December, mountainous areas are at the next danger.
Within the coastal Guianas, the secondary moist season might find yourself drier than typical, however flood potential stays excessive by means of January.
Drought throughout the Caribbean
As of November 1 this yr, extreme (or worse) short-term drought circumstances have emerged in Belize, French Guiana, Guyana, and Suriname.
Moreover, long-term drought has developed in components of jap Cuba, Grenada, Saint Vincent, and Tobago.
Waiting for the tip of February subsequent yr, short-term drought is anticipated to evolve in northern Belize, southern French Guiana, Grenada, western Puerto Rico, and northern and central Suriname, and should persist in different areas throughout the Caribbean.
Local weather components at play
CariCOF attributes these climate patterns to the unusually heat tropical North Atlantic Ocean and the presence of this yr’s El Niño, each of that are anticipated to persist.
Because of this unusually excessive air temperatures will probably prevail in lots of areas by means of Could 2024, notably through the nighttime.
Warmth stress on the horizon
Whereas these elevated temperatures mustn’t result in important warmth stress till March, the Caribbean warmth season is anticipated to accentuate in April and Could. Throughout this time, warmth stress might turn out to be extra outstanding.
Altering danger profile
The danger of extreme climate impacts, akin to flooding, flash floods, and cascading hazards, is anticipated to be comparatively low in February and March however might improve sharply in April.
Nonetheless, there’s a actual chance that the height of the dry season will likely be unusually intense, resulting in rising considerations about drought, notably in Belize and the Guianas.
